HVAC Industry Trends

Trends in the HVAC Industry – Prediction Data Driven

By: Frank DePino | May 22, 2024

HVAC industry trends will shape the way that your HVAC business conducts itself, whether those effects occur this year or trickle down in the future. What kinds of trends are already shaping the market?

Here are the most prominent HVAC industry trends:

  • Smart HVAC is on the rise
  • A data-driven approach wins out
  • The HVAC industry is growing steadily
  • Geothermal heat pumps may have a moment
  • AI could make HVAC even more efficient

In today’s article, we’ll first look at stats and predictions centering around the HVAC industry. Then we’ll delve deeper into the above trends. HVAC business owners and employees won’t want to miss this.

HVAC trends: the number of technicians will grow

HVAC Industry Stats and Predictions

To provide some context and relevancy to the HVAC market trends we have for you coming up, we thought we’d begin by sharing some current HVAC industry stats and predictions.

The Global Market for HVAC Is Going to Hit Record Highs By 2030

In 2019, Statista projected that the HVAC global market would reach $367.5 billion by 2030. The compound annual growth rate or CAGR of the industry between 2020 and 2030 is supposed to be 3.9 percent.

HVAC is already big business now, and it appears that nothing about that will change in the decade to come. The industry is only going to become more profitable.

The Number of HVAC Technicians Will Grow, Albeit Slowly, Between 2020 and 2030

That’s far from the only growth occurring in the HVAC industry.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS, between 2020 and 2030, the HVAC industry will add 19,000 more jobs.

That’s a projected growth rate of five percent. Admittedly, that is slower than BLS reported average, but growth is growth, and the HVAC industry will do anything but stagnate.

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More Than 150 Million HVAC Units Will Be Sold by 2024

HVAC units are more eco-friendly than ever, and whether it’s a heater or an air conditioner, the average person wants to reduce their energy costs.

It’s for that reason that it’s not all that surprising that Comfy Living reported that by 2024, the number of total HVAC units sold will exceed 151 million.

Florida Leads the United States with the Most HVAC Jobs

The Refrigeration School calls Florida the top state for HVAC jobs in 2021, as the company had 33,210 positions open that year.

This was followed closely by California with 32,410 positions, Texas with 28,010 positions, New York with 16,730 positions, and Pennsylvania with 14,900 positions.

Daikin Is the Leading Producer of HVAC Systems in the World

Move over, Mitsubishi. Daikin leads the charge as the biggest producer of HVAC systems according to Comfy Living.

Here’s a small bit of history.

Daikin Industries, Ltd. was founded by Akira Yamada in 1924 in Japan. The original name of the company was Osaka Kinzoku Kogyosho LP.

By 1963, the company underwent a name change, becoming Daikin Kogyo Co Ltd and then Daikin Industries, Ltd in the 1980s.

The company deals not only in HVAC but also in electronics, medical equipment, oil hydraulics, air filtration systems, and chemicals.

According to its 2020 report, Daikin had 100 production bases that year worldwide.

HVAC industry specialist are developing a new project based on the next trends.

HVAC Industry Trends (Including Scientific Trends)

Now it’s time to switch gears and discuss the HVAC industry trends from the intro. This section will include a series of scientific trends as well, as we wanted to touch on HVAC market trends from all angles.

Smart HVAC Will Continue to Grow

It seemed like just yesterday that the Internet of Things was merely a concept, and now it’s incorporated into many aspects of our everyday lives.

You can already ask Siri or Alexa to adjust your TV volume or lock the doors, and it seems like HVAC systems are getting smarter as well.

Imagine instead of having to manually adjust your heating or cooling units, you could do it from your smartphone. You wouldn’t have to get up off the couch when you’re feeling comfy.

If you’re traveling, you could monitor your HVAC from thousands of miles away to ensure less needless waste (now that’s energy efficiency!).

Well, you don’t just have to imagine anymore. In the HVAC industry, smart heaters and air conditioners are topping HVAC industry trends lists. We had to include this trend in our list as well!

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HVAC Optimization Becomes More Data-Driven

In a 2022 publication of the Journal of Building Engineering, the publication dove into data-driven HVAC optimization.

Whereas for a long time, “physical-based methods” were the driving force for the industry when optimizing and modeling HVAC systems, lately, the favor has been more towards data-driven approaches instead.

As the report mentions, being more data-driven like this has “demonstrated to be more application relevant, easier to compute and better situated to handle nonlinearities.”

A data-driven approach is only as good as its data, of course, but the journal mentions that as communication and information technology have continued to evolve, data has become more accessible, hardware has become less expensive, and HVAC companies can now collect and disseminate more data at once.

Geothermal Heat Pumps Reenter the Conversation

Have geothermal heat pumps made the biggest splash in the HVAC industry? Admittedly no, not so far, at least.

However, enough experts believe that geothermal heat pumps could finally be having a heyday that we had to include this trend in our HVAC market trends discussion.

The Department of Energy notes that each year, the number of geothermal heat pumps installed has held steady at 50,000. It’s a decent number but could become higher.

Why is that? Congress has renewed its HVAC technology tax credit, which might have some homeowners and business owners looking for alternatives.

Perhaps this finally is the geothermal heat pump’s time!

AI and HVAC Could Meet

Artificial intelligence is being utilized in an assortment of industries, from live inventory and stock management to sports analytics, autonomous flight, and even the humble chatbot.

It seems only a matter of time before AI bleeds over to the HVAC industry. And we may be on the cusp of that time now.

A 2020 publication of Frontiers in Built Environment states that AI could be used for a specific purpose in HVAC, to oversee operational device functionality and thus increase thermal comfort.

The paper identifies three key ways this can happen: machine learning, logic inference, and search algorithms.

Green Consumerism Is In

Consumer trends resource GWI found that as a whole, today’s consumer wants greener products more than ever.

In a 2022 report, GWI states that three out of five consumers are “willing to pay more for eco-friendly products.”

That’s a stat that the HVAC industry cannot afford to ignore, especially with climate change on the tips of everyone’s tongues.

If your HVAC technology is not as energy-efficient as it should be, there’s never a better time than now to make the shift to greener technology.

Consumers, including leads and customers who already own and use your HVAC units, are expecting it.

HVAC ductless systems will continue to grow in the next decade

Ductless Will Continue to Grow

There are plenty of reasons for the average consumer to switch from ducted HVAC systems to ductless.

Ductless systems such as ductless mini splits can offer both heating and cooling in one unit, which reduces the need to pay twice for installation and maintenance.

Ducts are imperfect technology and prone to air leaks that end up costing consumers on their monthly energy bills.

Further, ductless technology such as mini splits can heat or cool in specific areas known as zones, which makes for a more energy-efficient system overall.

If your HVAC company only dabbles in ductless technology now, it’s time to incorporate more ductless options to meet the growing consumer demand.

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HVAC industry trends continue to shape the HVAC market and will influence how HVAC techs serve customers.

Trends are partial predictions, and thus, it’s hard to say that the trends we discussed today will necessarily come to pass, but it seems likely.

After all, the HVAC market trends in our list are bolstered in real-world data, some of that data going back a very long time.

If your HVAC company is willing to keep a figurative open mind and embrace changes as they come, then you can continue to meet consumer demand even as green technology and smart Internet morphs the landscape. Good luck!

By: Frank DePino

Frank DePino is Principal and Founder of Mediaboom. Since 2002, Frank has led Mediaboom’s award-winning staff of creative and technical professionals, building the most effective marketing and advertising solutions for its clients.


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